Pre-Market Outlook: May 25, 2026

MARKET OVERVIEW

Overnight Catalysts

• Macro: Eurozone CPI printed cooler than expected at 2.4% y/y (vs. 2.6% forecast), fueling ECB June rate cut expectations. The US 10-Year Treasury yield remains sticky at 4.36%, capping broader equity index upside.
• Corporate/Geopolitical: TSLA surged +6.5% overnight following reports of tentative regulatory approval for its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software in China. Conversely, ASML guidance dragged global semiconductor sentiment down, acting as a headwind for the Nasdaq.
• Data Risk: US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM EST. A tight labor print (<212k) will likely push yields higher and pressure tech.

General Bias

• Mixed/Choppy Open: Expecting a bifurcated open. QQQ is flat-to-down due to semi-conductor weakness, while DIA and SPY are flat. TSLA will drive heavy early-morning retail volume.
• Execution Note: We are entering a high-gamma environment on SPY near the 5100 strike. Expect choppy, mean-reverting price action unless 5080 or 5120 breaks on volume.

---

WHALE WATCHLIST

1. Tesla (TSLA)

• Yesterday’s Flow: Massive aggressive call sweeping. Over $420M in premium hit the tape. Specifically, we saw repeated blocks of 26-Apr $185.00 Calls and 03-May $190.00 Calls bought at the ask.
• Gravity Levels:
  • $185.00: Major Gamma Flip Point. Above this, market makers must buy stock to hedge, accelerating the move.
  • $192.50: Heavy institutional Call Wall. Expect profit-taking here.

2. NVIDIA (NVDA)

• Yesterday’s Flow: Bearish institutional hedging. A whale executed a massive collar strategy: selling 10-May $900.00 Calls (12,000 contracts) to fund the purchase of 17-May $830.00 Puts (10,000 contracts).
• Gravity Levels:
  • $850.00: Critical Put Wall. If broken, dealers will be forced to short underlying shares, accelerating a drop.
  • $880.00: Resistance level where the short call supply sits.

3. iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)

• Yesterday’s Flow: Clean block trade of 25,000 17-May $195.00 Puts bought flat at the mid-market ($2.45 premium), indicating a large fund positioning for a broader market pullback.
• Gravity Levels:
  • $198.50: Immediate pivot level (VWAP boundary).
  • $195.00: Target support and major dealer liquidity pocket.

---

GAME PLAN

First 30 Minutes (9:30 AM – 10:00 AM EST)

Do not chase the TSLA gap-up. Let the initial retail frenzy settle. Watch the SPY 5100 level. If SPY holds above 5100 in the first 15 minutes, the bias is long for a test of yesterday's high. If SPY loses 5095, look for a quick flush to 5075.

Tactical Execution Levels

TSLA (Long Bias - Momentum)

• Setup: Wait for a pullback to the $184.50 - $185.00 zone (retesting the Gamma Flip point).
• Trigger: Look for a 5-minute bullish engulfing candle or high-volume absorption at $185.00.
• Targets: Target 1: $190.00 | Target 2: $192.50.
• Stop Loss: Hard stop below $182.00 (under structural support).

NVDA (Short Bias - Mean Reversion)

• Setup: If NVDA rallies to $878.00 - $880.00 on the open but fails to break higher within the first 30 minutes.
• Trigger: Entry on a break of the 15-minute low near $872.00.
• Targets: Target 1: $860.00 | Target 2: $850.00 (Put Wall).
• Stop Loss: Buy stop at $885.50 (above the institutional call supply).

SPY (Range Play)

• Setup: If SPY tests 512.20 and fails, or tests 508.50 and holds.
• Execution: Short at 512.00 with a tight stop at 513.10. Target 509.50.
• Note: Treat 510.00 as a magnet; do not hold positions long-term near this level as premium decay will be high.